MAJOR MARKET WARNING!!(LATE MONDAY UPDATE)

MONDAY NIGHT URGENT UPDATE!!!

NEKKEI IS DOWN OVER 13% at this moment and plunging lower. This is leaking into all world wide markets. As of this writting there are FOUR reactors either on fire or in some process of melting down. The prevailing wind is currently pushing wind and debris towards Tokyo. Pray to God that this explosion is minimal until tomorrow where the prevailing wind is predicted to change to out to sea. PRAY TO GOD TONIGHT PLEASE! I have friends who live outside(south) of Tokyo and I have not yet gotten in contact.

I am not being alarmist here. But if you have room to take in a refugee, please start the preperations to do so. I am going to offer tomorrow(assuming I can get into contact) my friends a place to stay here. At the very least they could send their children here if they do not want to leave the country of their birth.. but get your heads around this people, this is a TRUE black swan event and what is known as a TRIGGER EVENT..

The Japanese markets are absoultely IMPLODING at a rate that dwarfs the rapid declines we saw in October of 2008. Currently US Futures are down over 250 points and heading lower. Everything is blowing off JUST LIKE I PREDICTED over 4 days ago.

Read my post on PANIC and get your head around the vulnerabilities in your life right now. Obviously the bulk of the US is not in any immediate danger from this catastrophe(thought the West Coast had better be paying attention). But should the wind push this into Tokyo or even across the sea of Japan into China, this could be horrific beyond words. The economic fallout is going to be SYSTEMIC.. I am not worried about Joe Six Pack loosing his 401k money, I am starting to worry about a break down in the basic ability of commerce to function in this HIGHLY interconnected world. Should we have a major re-insurer fail or a major Japanese bank fold unexpectedly in the midst of all of this, the downsteam consequences could be catastrophic…

PLEASE keep a weather eye on this situation and I will check back in, in the morning. I just left my job and I am on a 2 week break till I start my next job, so I will be on top of this story as it happens…

Robert

9:00PM FRIDAY EVENING.

Just finally getting back to my blog after an incredibly crazy day.  Been taking in the event throughout the day and am absolutely amazed at the market reaction. The DOW actually bounced up towards the close and got back above the 12K mark and most other commodities sold off moderately and the whole day was very calm.

The anticipated Saudi protests were a non-event (so far) as the police were out in overwhelming force, but this does not mean that it is over. On the contrary I think this sets up a very violent end to the protestors wants of a free election and at least some say in their governance. This is a slow burn news item now as they will have to force their movement onto the world stage and it will likely be bloody.

All of this has left the markets kind of frozen in place and awaiting the shakeout for Monday.

But enough of the markets, I’d like to concentrate on the literal fallout from the Japanese quake and its potential ramifications as a triggering event for the globe. As it stands now there are 2 nuclear reactor facilities having major cooling problems in up to FIVE reactors. These are state of the art facilities and it would take a lot to get these things to go into meltdown (like Chernobyl). But as of this writing there is a very small possibility of this happening.

And seeing as that this morning the Mainstream media types were proclaiming a ZERO CHANCE of radiation leaks, I would take all of this will a huge grain of salt. We went from NO CHANCE to SOME PROBLEMS to a LIKELY RELEASE OF A SMALL AMOUNT OF RADIATION in a matter of 12 hours or less. There are tens of thousands living in close proximity to these reactors and with all communication and electricity down and most roads impassable, it seems unlikely a general evacuation will even be possible at the moment. So looking forward to Monday and the global reaction to this event it would seem that the rosy picture painted by the MSM about this being a BULLISH event seem about as likely as their initial reports of the nuclear reactors having ZERO chance of leaking.

There is no possible way that this event cannot have a huge and negative impact on the global economic situation, and in turn upon all the people that depend upon that economic system. Japan is the 3^rd largest economy on the planet and nearly their entire country is at a stand still as of this moment. Most of the major manufacturing plants will be closed for days if not weeks even if they were not directly damaged(at least obviously) because they will have to have safety inspections to ensure they are safe.

Think of the global impact on Semi-conductor production and automotive production? What about food production in the farm heavy north. From all indications the wave swept inland in some places as far as 50 miles or more. It will be years before that area can be even minimally reclaimed. The entire Japanese fishing fleet will be out of commission for a long time as port facilities were completely wiped out and likely all the canneries and processors.

This reminds me of the happy happy talk after Katrina passed over New Orleans and the hushed talk of water rising in the city and the Mainstream Media’s insistence that there were no problems. It wasn’t until the next morning that we woke to half the city under 10 feet of water and hundreds of people dying a slow and agonizing death.

This event will evolve over the weekend and will likely have some very serious repercussions to the world economic systems. I am not talking about MARKETS here, but the macro economy at its core. You cannot have a major economic contributor like Japan just fall off the grid like it just did and not have serious problems… Mark my words, this will slowly over the coming days and weeks morph into a very serious and deadly problem.

Robert

2:30AM Friday Morning

Woke up from a fitful attempt at sleeping early tonight and rolled over to turn on the TV at about 2:15 EST and saw the carnage of the Japanese earthquake just as the first tsunami waves were rolling onto shore.

I cannot fathom the power of this event and the horrific loss of life that is likely to occur. I am only now writing this 30 minutes after waking up and trying to absorb what is happening so please forgive me for the rambling nature of this post. I am going to try and capture the event as it happens and my predictions for the morning in the United States.

As it stands now(2:40am EST) the first and second tsunami waves have crashed ashore in Northern Japan and they have been nothing less than devastating. I appears that there is major infrastructure damage, even on the outskirts of Tokyo itself. I saw a major refinery on fire and it appeared to be ready to explode into a fiery mess. The waves washed onshore to consume to the airport in Sendai, it is a large structure and appears to be holding together. There are dozens if not hundreds of people on the roof of the structure and I pray for their safety. The wave literally washed ashore and did not stop and came inland for what appeared to be MILES. It washed away everything in its path and I pray to God that the people got some kind of warning.

The only saving grace may be that it happened in the afternoon and that the people of Japan are drilled from birth to take earthquakes and tsunami deadly serious. But I fear that all the prayers in the world are not going to make the death toll any easier to bare. The loss of life is going to be staggering.

I do not think the markets at this point have had a chance to take in the totality of this event, but I fear this could be a TRIGGER EVENT.. Japan is a major market player and if the damage to the infrastructure is as bad as I fear we could be looking at a complete and utter rout in the morning and as Europe opens in the next 2 to 3 hours.

I would assume the Japanese and Asian markets in the affected areas are going to be shut down shortly if they haven’t already. At present the NIKKEI is down about 2% as is most of the Asian markets. The oil futures and the rest have not yet seemed to have reacted to this event.

What I really fear for Japan is the obvious loss of farm land as this happened in the farm heavy north of Japan and all the farms are being literally washed into the sea.

Right now US DOW futures are pointing to a 100 point drop at the open and the US Dollar is strengthening considerably on the news. We have popped well up into the 77 range and if I had to bet we will be well into the 78 range by the end of the day today. I think there will be a general sell off of anything and everything and a quick and NOT ORDERLY move to government debt in stable countries outside the affected area, which means the US Dollar and possibly Singapore and Switzerland. Expect money to flee everything and a general rout of all equities if the damage is as bad as it appears in this first 2 hours of the disaster.
I am going to post this now and update as long as I am awake which is likely to be until morning.

EDIT 3:30 AM EST

Major refinery just went up in a mushroom cloud and is likely a complete loss. Further pictures show this wave has hit all up and down the coast of Japan and will likely be devastating to the infrastructure of the country. I can only pray that the well drilled people of Japan were able to get to higher ground and that the loss of life will be much much less than the Sumatra earthquake.

But given the absolute devastation and the wide area this has affected I fear that there will be a great loss of life. I just heard that if the preliminary reports of the magnitude hold that this will be the SEVENTH largest earthquake in modern reporting times at 8.9.

There have already been multiple 7.0 PLUS aftershocks each of which in normal times would be significant. Most transport in the country is now down and I can only imagine how bad the coming days and weeks will be for this island nation. They are absolutely dependent upon their coastal infrastructure and the initial pictures from the North show complete and utter destruction of the port facilities I have seen. This will likely greatly hamper recovery efforts in the affected regions.

I have not seen any pictures of Tokyo as of yet and I will admit my ignorance of the geography of the Nation as I don’t even know if Tokyo is on the coast at all.  I am actually downloading  Google earth as we speak so I can have a better understanding of the geography and where the wave likely went and what port facilities’ were likely wiped out. This will be key to the rebuilding effort in the country as so much of what Japan does is based on shipping.

OK after viewing the map it would appear that Tokyo will be well shielded from the wave and given the extensive locks and barrier walls they have in place that the tsunami will not be a problem in the capital. I have not heard of any waves hitting the Island of Hokkaido yet, but I would think that it would have already arrived. I pray that the reason we have not seen any pictures from the island is because nothing is happening there. But it seems unlikely as they are right in the path of this earthquake.

As I write this a Tsunami warning has been issued for the Hawaiian Islands at it will arrive at about 2:00am LOCAL TIME. That is in about 2 ½ hours from this writing (3:46am).. I pray to God that the energy of this earthquake dissipates by then, but there is absolutely NOTHING to block the energy of this wave and I fear for the friends I have online who live on the big island.

Right now the markets do not seem to be responding to this disaster, the US Dollar has actually fallen off its highs and oil and the futures have all improved over the past hour. I am not sure what this means, could be that no one is awake yet to react to this monumental disaster.

I am going to post now and come back in a few. Please say a prayer for all involved.

Robert

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