Security Guard (over loud speaker): Ladies and Gentleman please for your safety return to your offices. You are in no danger and we don’t want any panic to get out of control. For your safety and that of your co-workers it would be best if you moved away from the windows and went back to your desks.
The fire department has told us it would be in your best interest to remain seated and to not leave the building at this time. Please return to your offices. Thank you for your cooperation in this matter. Please remain in your offices until you hear further instructions from this office……………………………
MAN FILMING A CONCERT (thoughts in his head): What a great band, can’t believe they are playing in such a dive bar. WOW… Look at those fireworks! Seems kind of a small venue to be using that many pyrotechnics… Guess they know what they are doing.
That looks like a fire over the drummers left shoulder… Hmmm. No one else is worried. Don’t want to start a panic and look like a big dumb ass… Damn that fire is getting big, why isn’t anyone running!! Damn, I’m getting the fuck out of here!! Damn why did I wait so LONG!! Everyone is trampling people, damn I’m stuck in a door way now………………………….
59 ½ YEAR OLD MAN IN CHARGE OF HIS WIFE’s AND HIS RETIREMENT 2007/2008:
MSNBC TALKING HEAD: There is no housing bubble, sure there is some froth in certain markets, but the doomsayers who think that real estate prices on average are going to start falling are insane. Not since the Great Depression has national housing prices gone down.
MAN (thinking): I guess they know what they are talking about, we aren’t quite ready to sell the house yet, and just another year and we’ll be ready. Perfect timing, my 401k is doing very well and has almost recouped the tech bubble disaster. They say not to panic.. I’m not going to panic and make a dumb mistake and look like an idiot.
MSNBC TALKING HEAD (Summer 2008): Sure there has been some big sell offs and I’m sure everyone is getting nervous. But this is a run of the mill SHALLOW recession. We are not going back to the levels of the Tech Bubble bust like some are suggesting. We suggest you bottom feed and double down to get greater gains on the way up. Fannie and Freddie are solid and the banking sector is strong… NO NEED TO PANIC!!
MAN(thinking): God I have lost so much already, the DOW is already down into the 10K range and I’ve already lost so much equity in my home, I have to hang in there to make sure I can cover my losses.. I don’t want to panic and look stupid.
MSNBC TALKING HEAD(Nov 2008): It is a bloodbath out there, I TOLD YOU THAT THEY KNOW NOTHING!! Get out while you can, save yourself. Chrysler is going under and so is most of the banking industry. We warned you this was a possibility.
MAN(explaining to his sobbing wife in mid 2009): I don’t know what the hell happened? We lost over 45% of the worth of our home and our 401k lost almost 30%, even though we were in solid blue chip companies. I DID EVERYTHING RIGHT and yet we are still going to lose our home on Friday. God I feel so God Damned stupid!!! I’m pretty sure this knot will hold my weight, I never want to see my wife cry like that again, how did it all go so wrong so fast..……………..
COMPANY SPOKESMAN and GOVERNMENT LACKEY’S: as of this morning we are confident that all of the reactors have successfully shut down as they were designed to do in the event of a major earthquake. There is ZERO chance of a radiological release, all plants are reporting normal..
AL JAZEERA and MULTIPLE BLOGGERS REPORTING FROM JAPAN FRIDAY MORNING!!: We are hearing in hushed voices from people we trust that there is something going on at the reactors in Northern Japan. We do not want to start a panic but what we are hearing is in complete contrast to what the MSM and government officials are saying..
MSM SHILLS: THE REPORTS coming out of the blogosphere and certain insane news organizations that are obviously anti-American, are reporting an erroneous report about the safety of Japan’s nuclear reactors. This is fear mongering and could cause a panic.
COMPANY SPOKEMAN AND GOV SHILLS: OK we will have to vent some pressure but nothing to worry about; just a minimal amount of radiologic material will be released.
COMPANY SPOKESMAN GOV SHILLS: The top blew off the reactor shell, but nothing to worry about, we have it under control. You see we are directly pouring SEA WATER ONTO THE CORE to keep it from exploding! It is NOT a meltdown
COMPANY SPOKESMAND GOV SHILLS: It is a partial meltdown.. Not even really it is just a misshapen core, not really a full meltdown..
TYPICAL JAPANESE (or American for the matter) Responses in order: Don’t want to look stupid and cause a panic………Well they are saying there are problems, but I am not worried because they say it’s no big deal…HMMMM that didn’t look so good seeing the top blow off the fucking containment building… Maybe I should think about moving further out than 5KM……….. GOD DAMN WHY DIDN”T I LISTEN TO MY GUT and run before this thing blew sky high?? Now we are stuck in this traffic jam with a radioactive cloud heading our way. What are we going to do now……………………..
WHAT FOLLOWS WILL BE AN EXPLITIVE RIDDEN DIATRIBE THAT WILL LIKELY OFFEND A LOT OF PEOPLE. IF THIS IS YOU… STOP HERE!!!
All of these are true stories. The first is a retelling of security guards at the WTC complex during and after the first plane hit the North Trade center building, those in the South tower were explicitly told to return to their seats and that there was nothing to worry about.
THEY HAD NO FUCKING IDEA IF THAT WAS TRUE!! Did those mother fuckers have a radar tower in their office that would show them that there were not just 1, not just 2 and not just 3 BUT FOUR planes that were being regarded as hijacked!! Did they know that one of them was entering New York airspace likely at the very time they were making these prognostications!!
Did they know that the super structure of the North Tower wasn’t so weakened that it wasn’t going to fall over and collapse into the South tower(which didn’t happen BTW, but how the fuck could they have known it wouldn’t!!).. These were people whose job it was to KEEP THE COWS FROM PANICKING and to ensure that those people listened to the authority figures who were telling them what to do.
There were guards actively trying to get people to turn around on the stairwells and to get them to go back. Some pushed passed the guards and continued out of the building… The rest are dead or had to endure a hell on earth as they scrambled to get out of that building when the second plane smashed into the side of their building cutting the stairwell in two. How many died because they DID NOT WANT YOU TOO PANIC!!
The second story is a made up internal conversation that was likely shared by many at The Station concert of the band Great White that ended in a tragic fire and the deaths of dozens and dozens of concert goers. I saw the video from inside as the fire started… WHY DID THEY JUST STAND THERE!!! Because they were conditioned to not panic, they had the panic gene suppressed in them from the time they were small children. They stood there like cattle waiting for some alpha cow to make his first move toward the door and then the rest all went in a mad rush and more people died of being trampled than they did of the fire itself(smoke inhalation killed the most BTW)…
The third story is yet another made up story or more correctly a compellation of news stories that came out in the early to middle part of 2009. How many people committed suicide in the wake of the worst economic meltdown in over 70 years?? He was told by those “in charge” to not panic though his internal radar was likely going off as far back as 2007. But he was conditioned to be more worried about appearing to PANIC than he was about his eventual financial ruin that led him to hang himself from a rafter in his newly foreclosed home’s garage. Seems he should have panicked…
And the last story is obviously unfolding before our eyes as I type this sentence. How many Japanese citizens heard the rumors on Friday morning? How many of us heard the strange reports coming out of Al Jazeera as early as 5 or 6 am Eastern Standard time in the United States about there being major problems with more than one nuclear facility in Japan?? I listened to a young blogger on CNN who was Skyping from his apartment in Tokyo as he gave a very lucid and heartbreaking interview about his experiences. He ended the interview by stating that he was hearing from local news and other bloggers that there were major problems with the nuclear reactors up north.
The CNN talking head immediately jumped on the kid and proclaimed his information TO BE ABSOLUTELY FALSE!! The government was assuring him through PROPER CHANNELS that there was absolutely nothing wrong with the reactors!!! The kid stuck his tail between his legs and said something weak like “well I guess that’s good”. And he was quickly dismissed.
What do ALL of these stories have in common? In the end (except the last one) the person ended up dead… Not because they didn’t realize the danger they were facing, but because they decided not to act upon their natural and understandable panic.
Had these people in the area of the stricken reactors been told as early as Friday morning in Japan that there was a POSSIBILITY of a problem with the reactors, there could have been an orderly and large movement of people away from the area, yet they didn’t want PANIC. So they obfuscated and minimized the possible danger. In the end the top blew off the reactor core and HAD THAT BEEN a reactor blowing up instead of the pressure inside the containment building, we would be looking at potentially 100 thousand people being in harm’s way.
I have friends who live in the path of these things and had these reactors exploded and given them a lethal dose of radiation, I would have been bitter beyond words. Because I KNEW Friday morning that these mother fuckers were lying through their teeth. I knew the way that Al Jazeera was reporting this was just too weird for words and after years and years of studying Main Stream Media LYING, I have become almost too good at picking out when I should take what they say and do the FUCKING EXACT OPPOSITE!!
You had better learn this skill my friends if you haven’t already. In 2007 I sold out of all my retirement accounts and got mostly to cash before the bottom fell out. We got the rest of our investment to cash in fall of 2008 just as things were falling apart. I knew that a bust was coming and that the Jim Kramer’s of the world (he of the THEY KNOW NOTHING!! Line) was a scum sucking piece of shit that was leading millions to their economic ruin.
I had sold my home in 2005 because I understood what was coming and that their insistence that this was a shallow recession and that housing always went UP, was a bald face LIE and they FUCKING KNEW IT!!
Tomorrow we are expecting a huge release of Bank of America emails and correspondence that will unequivocally show that BOA and all the rest of these mother fucking “DO NOT PANIC WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE DOING” pieces of shit knew exactly what was coming even as they were talking Middle America into doubling down. They knew that an economic tsunami was inevitable as early as 2007 and even earlier and yet they continued to pump more 401k and pension money into these abominations all in a attempt to stave off what was going to be an INEVITABLE PANIC IN THE END.. The key was not to stop the panic. The KEY WAS TO MAKE SURE THESE PRICKS GOT TO THE EXIT FIRST!!!
In Japan as I type this, literally millions of people are sitting in the path of a potential meltdown explosion and a potential for a radiologic cloud that will easily hit Tokyo if the prevailing winds are blowing in that direction.
I understand that having people swinging from the chandeliers in abstract panic is going to help no one, but to LIE TO THEM and tell them that all is well is a piece of shit move only a true authoritarian could possible make. Give these people a fucking fighting chance and tell them what they should be doing and give them THE WORST CASE SCENARIO so that at least they can plan for it. If it doesn’t happen and they all taped themselves up in their bathroom with cellophane and duct tape and they look like a bunch of God Damned fools, THEN WHO CARES!! At least they had a fighting chance if the worst case did happen.
Panic is a useful tool when it is used correctly. We are told to NOT PANIC, BE CALM, and LISTEN TO THE AUTHORITIES… You know what I say to that? I SAY FUCK THEM and you start getting your own head around the vulnerabilities in your own life and you start your own contingency planning. Because time and time and time again the “authorities” have proven that the only thing they care about ultimately is making sure that the herd doesn’t trample their asses as they make their way to the exits before the masses.
And I want to end with a small prayer which is very unusual for me. I don’t generally tout my religious beliefs and if you are a non-believer then please ask for Karmic intervention or just plain good luck!! But I would like to say a prayer to the brave souls who ran into the burning building on 9/11 even as they knew they would likely die. To the brave souls who took the barbs of the MSM in 2005/06/07 and to THIS DAY, who tried to warn the American (and global) people about the abstract thievery that was being committed by these financial terrorists. They in some ways lost everything. They lost friends and wives and husbands, all of whom could not reconcile what they were being told by the MSM and what their own friends/husbands/wives were trying to tell them. How many people lost marriages and children to the economic devastation that followed the collapse? How many suicides, how many starving people in the third world have died?? All because we have to listen to the authorities and NOT PANIC!! And finally say a prayer to the brave souls who are, as I type, rushing into dangerous reactors in an attempt to save potentially millions of lives. Pray they are successful and that they are kept safe and that their bravery is not forgotten. They are the true heroes and are the ones who RUN IN and try and save those put at risk by these mother fuckers. They are golden in God’s eyes if I could ever be that bold as to know God’s will.
I say get really good at panicking. God put that gene in our brains for a reason. Just like the word ANARCHY, the world panic is taken out of context and is not used properly anymore.
What is the next word that always follows anarchy in the MSM…. It is CHAOS… But anarchy is simply the absence of central authority…. Could it lead to chaos.. Yes. Does it need too??? Absolutely not…
Panic is the brains way of making you do something NOW and without hesitation. If a lion jumps up in front of you in the jungle, do you sit and wait for the guy in charge to tell you to RUN or climb a tree or pull out a knife to protect yourself??? Of course not, you do what you need to do. Maybe you grab your child and throw him up a tree and sacrifice yourself, or you grab a knife and charge in, or you run like a little girl and save yourself. But the point is that you do not wait. YOU DO!!
And living in these times it is crucial to understand the dangers that surround you and to think about your “panic” in advance. My long standing philosophy in such things goes as thus “PANIC FIRST, PANIC SMART OR DO NOT PANIC AT ALL”…
Understand that the “authorities” do not have your best interest in mind and you had better start looking out for yourself and those around you WHILE YOU HAVE THE TIME and the clear mind to do so. Know what your panic looks like in any number of situations and know what you will do when it happens. But do it when you feel/know it’s right, not when some politician tells you it is “all clear”(after making sure all the privileged people have gotten out).
PANIC FIRST, PANIC SMART or DO NOT PANIC….
Robert
Well done, RD, well done!
Panic first, beat the rush.
Good call, Robert. I got a lot of funds (for us) out of the meltdown and put them into debt payment and preps. I have never regretted it. People say, “Oh, but you missed the run up afterward.” Sure. It hasn’t run up YET to where it was when it fell, and THAT figure had only just reached where it was in 2000-01 when it fell the time before. Screw that. I got my money back through interested I didn’t have to pay on debt and the peace of mind of having a few things stashed away. Thanks again, R.
Great explanation of when to panic! Thanks, RD!
Robert,
Been following your stuff since the days of debates with Jeromie on the LATOC forums — thank you, thank you, thank you! Speaking of when to panic (in the positive context to which you have returned the word), please see my post “Breaking – Elite to Hold New Bretton Woods?” at http://www.MalthusUniversity.com. Prep, prep, prep; time appears short. Here’s hoping I’m wrong, of course, but better early than late.
i try to read a lot of different web pages to try to understand what the hell is going on. Most articles are very informative about what the government is doing QE2, inflation, etc. but how does one prepare now? I have quite a bit of rental real estate. about half of it i purchased in 2008 and 2009 at a 50% discount of the 2006/7 prices (foreclosures). so my cash flow is really good on these properties. I have very little in the stock market (less than 20K) and i am thinking of selling all of that. i have about two months supply of food an i would like to increase that to about 3 months. i have food stored cause my biggest fear is that some radical group takes out a huge portion of the electric grid. So my questions are this; how safe is my real estate, would the banks ever “call in” good loans with lots of equity in them to cover their losses on bad loans (there is a due on demand clause in every mortgage). if inflation gets out of control what is the likely response of banks regarding mortgages (They certainly will not stand for mortgages getting repaid with cheaper dollars). what does one do with cash now, to survive and grow during inflation and another crash of the stock market?
First off, thanks for reading my Blog. Those are GREAT questions and ones that I have grappled with for the better part of 5 years now. It is the eternal doomer question; fast crash or slow grind out? And your best bet is to do a little of both and ride the fence. Believe it or not you have done THE HARDEST part of preparation. And that is acceptance. You have accepted the POSSIBILITY (and that possibility gets more and more probable every month it seems) that everything you know and love in this consumer world could go belly up at any moment.
This forced you to re-examine your whole life and what is important. At least it did for me. I distinctly remember a day back in 2005 when the FULL IMPACT of what Peak Oil meant for me and my new family hit me like a ton of bricks. I scrambled through dozens and dozens of website looking for that ONE piece of information that would tell me that this is it!! Or this is what I have to do!!! And I spent 3 months of manic/panicked study looking for the IT piece of information that I could hang my hat on. I was consumed with study of Peak Oil and all its ancillary by-product (crashing economy, etc) and I got the most thoughtful and sincere email from a website that I frequented. It stated simply that I was going through the stages of grief, no different than someone who lost a close relative. I was smack dab in the bargaining/anger stage, and that I would not find peace until I got to ACCEPTANCE!! It took another 6 months from mid 2004 till that day in 2005 that I distinctly remember. It was almost religious in a way.
I was standing in the parking lot of Best Buy in Toledo and surrounded by cars and people coming and going into the store. And I remember thinking to myself “In 3 or 4 years this is all going to be GONE”. And for the first time that thought didn’t scare the living piss out of me, I was actually OK with it and for the first time in nearly a year I was at peace.
From that vantage point I was deeply in debt, was struggling already to keep my family in our house and was in a neighborhood that was probably the worst place I could think of to ride down the backside of the Oil Peak. I set out to do something to improve my situation. I talked to my wife and though she was deeply disappointed, she agreed that selling the house and renting for a couple of years was our best course of action. We sold about 14 months before the bottom fell out of the market and our house still is the most expensive sale for that neighborhood. Every house in the area (comparable) sold for less and less and that same house would now sell for less than what we bought it for in 1999…
We waited until 2007 and bought a foreclosure (sounds similar to what you did) and each year I try and solidify my position. Look through my site and you’ll see the preparation I’ve done. The KEY IS BALANCE!!! You are balancing between two worlds right now and you are getting vertigo because you keep looking down. Keep your eyes forward and keep moving towards a goal…. My goal is to make sure that I raise two wonderful children that can operate no matter what the future brings… They understand about commercialism and all the rest. But they own an IPOD touch and they go to Boy Scouts (Which is stealth planning on my part LOL) and they go out with friends and we encourage them to want to learn and maybe go to college…
But under that is a solid foundation that they are OK and that WE ARE OK. Because we have accepted that the future could be vastly different than it is today. Our kid (10 and 11) has been aware of Peak Oil for about 2 or 3 years and they accepted without missing a beat. They made the mental leap in about 1 hour and they are always commenting on the waste they see around them and they are aware of how energy works…
SO ALL OF THIS COMMENTARY LEADS ME TO THIS ADVICE… DO NOT DO ANYTHING RASH!! I mean this very serious. Take all of your worries and hopes and plans and neurotic thinking and start writing it down. Make a lot of near term goal, medium and long term goals and start prioritizing based on your beliefs and wants.
Food is a big one, I’ll not sugar coat it at all.. I had about 3 month canned goods going into the Christmas season and had let it dwindle. The sudden food price increases and all the talk of famine and drought scared the living shit out of me. I spent the money and got myself back up to 4 or 5 months canned/dry foods and I went much further and spent a large chunk of change and got long term food supplies in the form of raw grains/rice/corn and a grinder to utilize it all. I felt that strongly that it was POSSIBLE that we could go that far down the hole. And it was no longer a remote or tiny possibility; I started assigning double digit percentages to that possibility.
There is a one in a 10,000 chance your house will burn down tonight and yet you have insurance on your homes, CORRECT? What is the percentage of possibility that in 3 years sugar/grains/rice prices will horrifically expensive and even possibly rationed? Would you put it at 1 in 1000? 1 in 500? I put that percentage at about 1 in 10 or maybe 1 in 20…. Needless to say I went out AND GOT INSURANCE!!
That is my advice. Walks both sides of the fence and CONSTANTLY reassess your life, what you are doing, and what you believe is important. And do not do anything that you have not seriously pondered and thought about. AND FIND A PERSON YOU CAN TALK TO, to bounce ideas off of that understands what is going on. You don’t want an echo chamber, but someone who sees outside the current paradigm. I didn’t have that, but it would have been really great if I did. When I said I wanted to sell the house in 2005, every tried to talk me out of it, when I wanted to take a buyout from the Automotive supplier company I worked for(for 11 years!!), people that I was NUTS and tried to talk me out of it. Same goes for getting my wife’s money out of her State Pension Fund (which is now under assault in Ohio)…
The point is to find someone you can bounce ideas off of who can see outside the box.
As far as buying stocks in foreign exchanges. I am not positive, but unless you take your profits in the foreign currency and keep it in a foreign bank, you will have to pay one way or another. This is where you have to find your comfort level and new risk tolerance. If you have all your food preps and you have all this great (AND AFFORDABLE!!) rental property (which is a big benefit in my mind, just look at the Great Depression for validation) and you have some Precious Metals and CASH!! DO NOT FORGET TO KEEP 12 months operating money in CASH and close at hand (not at home BTW, but at a local/reliable bank) and you have all these near term and medium term bases covered.. I SAY SWING FOR THE FENCES!! Because you could ride markets to the moon if things fall correctly. They just as easily could crash into the ground, but that is the uncertainty. Nobody knows where we go from here, because we are in completely uncharted waters… And anyone who says THEY KNOW!! They are lying…
I always temper my “OMFG THE WORLD IS FALLING” posts with the caveat that I am very likely to be wrong in the short term and even the medium term….
So I am sorry for the length of this. But I am sure you are not the only one with these questions…. Have a good one and I hope to be getting back to writing soon. Just started a new job and PLANTING SEASON IS FINALLY HERE!!! Been very busy…
Robert
oh one other question. a stock of a foreign company that is listed on say the NYSE is shown with ADR behind the name. so if i purchase a stock of a chinese company and the dollar falls significantly against the chinese yuan, will my stock hold its value (the stock price increase) by the amount of the change in the exchange rate?
Glad to see you are just taking a spring break and will be writing again soon.